US Hostert vs Mamer Statistics & Analysis

US Hostert

May 03, 2026 - 14:00

4 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 40%

Mamer

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 US Hostert US Hostert ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1613825

Closing Odds 3.74

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result US Hostert win · US Hostert 4–2 Mamer

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Mamer (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mamer (1X2) by about 8.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
US Hostert (1X2)	41.8	49.1	-7.4
Draw (1X2)	25.7	26.4	-0.8
Mamer (1X2)	32.6	24.4	+8.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Mamer (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.4%. The difference — about 8.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
US Hostert (1X2)	1.86	1.86
Draw (1X2)	3.46	3.46
Mamer (1X2)	3.74	3.74

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Back to Statistics

National Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Atert Bissen	30	20	5	5	65
2	FC Differdange 03	30	19	8	3	65
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	30	19	3	8	60
4	UNA Strassen	30	17	7	6	58
5	F91 Dudelange	30	17	7	6	58
6	AS Jeunesse Esch	30	10	10	10	40
7	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	30	11	7	12	40
8	UN Kaerjeng 97	30	11	5	14	38
9	US Hostert	30	10	6	14	36
10	Victoria Rosport	30	10	5	15	35
11	Progres Niederkorn	30	9	7	14	34
12	Swift Hesperange	30	9	5	16	32
13	Jeunesse Canach	30	9	4	17	31
14	Mamer	30	8	5	17	29
15	Union Titus Petange	30	6	7	17	25
16	Rodange 91	30	6	7	17	25

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Atert Bissen	30	70	27	+43	65
2	FC Differdange 03	30	63	22	+41	65
3	F91 Dudelange	30	59	38	+21	58
4	UNA Strassen	30	57	26	+31	58
5	US Mondorf-les-bains	30	51	24	+27	60
6	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	30	48	50	-2	40
7	Progres Niederkorn	30	44	47	-3	34
8	UN Kaerjeng 97	30	43	48	-5	38
9	AS Jeunesse Esch	30	35	34	+1	40
10	US Hostert	30	35	56	-21	36
11	Victoria Rosport	30	33	50	-17	35
12	Mamer	30	33	59	-26	29
13	Swift Hesperange	30	31	46	-15	32
14	Jeunesse Canach	30	29	44	-15	31
15	Rodange 91	30	28	65	-37	25
16	Union Titus Petange	30	26	49	-23	25