Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Cadiz vs Deportivo La Coruna

Cadiz vs Deportivo La Coruna Statistics & Analysis

Cadiz Cadiz
May 08, 2026 - 18:30
0 0.96
1 1.09
xG Accuracy: 75%
Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Cadiz vs Deportivo La Coruna
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.8% · Draw 33.8% · Away 36.5%
  • xG (showing): Cadiz 0.96 — Deportivo La Coruna 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.05)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.3% · Implied: 50.0% · Probability edge: +16.3 pts · Est. EV: +30.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.7% · No 57.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: Under 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

FAQ

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Racing Santander 40 24 6 10 78
2 Deportivo La Coruna 39 20 11 8 71
3 Almeria 40 21 8 11 71
4 Malaga 40 20 9 11 69
5 Las Palmas 40 19 12 9 69
6 Castellón 40 18 12 10 66
7 Burgos 40 18 12 10 66
8 Eibar 40 18 10 12 64
9 Cordoba 40 17 9 14 60
10 FC Andorra 39 16 10 13 58
11 Albacete 40 15 11 14 56
12 AD Ceuta FC 40 15 10 15 55
13 Sporting Gijon 39 15 7 17 52
14 Granada CF 40 12 12 16 48
15 Real Sociedad II 40 12 10 18 46
16 Valladolid 40 12 10 18 46
17 Leganes 39 10 12 17 42
18 Cadiz 40 10 10 20 40
19 Mirandes 40 9 10 21 37
20 Huesca 39 9 9 21 36
21 Cultural Leonesa 40 9 9 22 36
22 Zaragoza 39 8 11 20 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Racing Santander 40 85 59 +26 78
2 Almeria 40 79 60 +19 71
3 Malaga 40 72 51 +21 69
4 Castellón 40 67 50 +17 66
5 FC Andorra 39 61 49 +12 58
6 Deportivo La Coruna 39 60 41 +19 71
7 Cordoba 40 56 58 -2 60
8 Las Palmas 40 54 38 +16 69
9 Albacete 40 53 53 0 56
10 Sporting Gijon 39 52 51 +1 52
11 Real Sociedad II 40 50 57 -7 46
12 Eibar 40 49 38 +11 64
13 Granada CF 40 48 51 -3 48
14 AD Ceuta FC 40 48 63 -15 55
15 Burgos 40 45 33 +12 66
16 Valladolid 40 44 54 -10 46
17 Mirandes 40 44 67 -23 37
18 Leganes 39 42 48 -6 42
19 Huesca 39 40 61 -21 36
20 Cultural Leonesa 40 38 65 -27 36
21 Cadiz 40 37 57 -20 40
22 Zaragoza 39 33 53 -20 35
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Castellón 40 41.1 29.0 +12.1 66
2 Valladolid 40 34.2 23.6 +10.6 46
3 Cordoba 40 39.1 32.6 +6.5 60
4 Eibar 40 36.5 31.0 +5.5 64
5 Racing Santander 40 36.6 32.0 +4.6 78
6 Burgos 40 32.1 27.9 +4.2 66
7 Malaga 40 35.7 32.1 +3.6 69
8 Granada CF 40 32.0 29.2 +2.8 48
9 Las Palmas 40 22.9 20.6 +2.3 69
10 Deportivo La Coruna 39 30.2 28.3 +1.9 71
11 Albacete 40 35.2 33.7 +1.5 56
12 Sporting Gijon 39 30.8 29.4 +1.4 52
13 Almeria 40 32.7 31.4 +1.3 71
14 Zaragoza 39 30.6 30.5 +0.1 35
15 Leganes 39 34.1 35.4 -1.3 42
16 FC Andorra 39 31.8 33.5 -1.7 58
17 Huesca 39 27.3 29.6 -2.3 36
18 Real Sociedad II 40 29.3 37.9 -8.6 46
19 AD Ceuta FC 40 34.1 43.7 -9.6 55
20 Mirandes 40 27.5 37.4 -9.9 37
21 Cadiz 40 26.9 39.4 -12.5 40
22 Cultural Leonesa 40 27.7 40.3 -12.6 36
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