Austria Lustenau vs SKU Amstetten Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: 2. Liga
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs SKU Amstetten
• Kickoff: 2026-05-14 16:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 16.6% · Draw 27.4% · Away 56.0%
• xG (showing): Austria Lustenau 0.63 — SKU Amstetten 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.04)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): SKU Amstetten
• Model: 56.0% · Implied: 20.0% · Probability edge: +35.9 pts · Est. EV: +9.4%
• BTTS (model): Yes 58.2% · No 41.8%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Primary pick from the decision engine: SKU Amstetten.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)