Statistics / Football / Austria. 2. Liga / Rapid Wien II vs First Vienna

Rapid Wien II vs First Vienna Statistics & Analysis

Rapid Wien II Rapid Wien II
May 08, 2026 - 16:00
1 0.63
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 61%
First Vienna First Vienna
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Rapid Wien II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1650451

Closing Odds 3.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Rapid Wien II win · Rapid Wien II 1–0 First Vienna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), First Vienna (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 24.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rapid Wien II (1X2) 16.6 27.9 -11.3
Draw (1X2) 27.4 24.3 +3.1
First Vienna (1X2) 56.0 47.8 +8.2
Over 2.5 goals 33.4 57.4 -24.0
Under 2.5 goals 66.6 42.6 +24.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 66.6% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.6%. The difference — about 24.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rapid Wien II (1X2) 3.41 3.41 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.92 3.92 0.0
First Vienna (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.66 1.66 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.24 2.24 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Liga
  • Fixture: Rapid Wien II vs First Vienna
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 16.6% · Draw 27.4% · Away 56.0%
  • xG (showing): Rapid Wien II 0.63 — First Vienna 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.04)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 63.2% · Implied: 41.1% · Probability edge: +22.1 pts · Est. EV: +51.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Liga 2. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Austria Lustenau 28 16 6 6 54
2 SKN ST. Polten 28 16 5 7 53
3 Admira Wacker 28 12 12 4 48
4 Floridsdorfer AC 28 14 6 8 48
5 FC Liefering 28 13 8 7 47
6 SKU Amstetten 28 11 11 6 44
7 First Vienna 28 11 7 10 40
8 Austria Vienna (Am) 28 11 6 11 39
9 Austria Salzburg 28 9 10 9 37
10 WSPG Wels 28 9 6 13 33
11 Rapid Wien II 28 9 5 14 32
12 Austria Klagenfurt 28 9 6 13 30
13 SV Kapfenberg 28 8 4 16 28
14 Sturm Graz II 28 5 6 17 21
15 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 28 3 10 15 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Admira Wacker 28 50 29 +21 48
2 FC Liefering 28 47 41 +6 47
3 SKN ST. Polten 28 44 26 +18 53
4 Floridsdorfer AC 28 42 18 +24 48
5 SKU Amstetten 28 41 34 +7 44
6 Austria Lustenau 28 40 26 +14 54
7 Austria Salzburg 28 36 37 -1 37
8 WSPG Wels 28 36 37 -1 33
9 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 28 36 57 -21 16
10 Austria Vienna (Am) 28 33 40 -7 39
11 Austria Klagenfurt 28 33 44 -11 30
12 Rapid Wien II 28 33 45 -12 32
13 SV Kapfenberg 28 31 53 -22 28
14 First Vienna 28 30 25 +5 40
15 Sturm Graz II 28 25 45 -20 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Austria Lustenau 28 1.4 0.6 +0.8 54
2 FC Liefering 28 0.6 1.4 -0.8 47
3 SKN ST. Polten 28 — — — 53
4 Admira Wacker 28 — — — 48
5 Floridsdorfer AC 28 — — — 48
6 SKU Amstetten 28 — — — 44
7 First Vienna 28 — — — 40
8 Austria Vienna (Am) 28 — — — 39
9 Austria Salzburg 28 — — — 37
10 WSPG Wels 28 — — — 33
11 Rapid Wien II 28 — — — 32
12 Austria Klagenfurt 28 — — — 30
13 SV Kapfenberg 28 — — — 28
14 Sturm Graz II 28 — — — 21
15 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 28 — — — 16