Karpaty vs Veres Rivne Statistics & Analysis

Karpaty

May 17, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.66

0 1.08

xG Accuracy: 68%

Veres Rivne

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Karpaty Karpaty ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1629104

Closing Odds 1.86

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Karpaty win · Karpaty 2–0 Veres Rivne

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 4.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Karpaty (1X2)	49.5	49.8	-0.4
Draw (1X2)	27.4	27.2	+0.2
Veres Rivne (1X2)	23.2	23.0	+0.2
Over 2.5 goals	51.6	47.0	+4.6
Under 2.5 goals	48.4	53.0	-4.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 47.0%. The difference — about 4.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Karpaty (1X2)	1.86	1.86
Draw (1X2)	3.41	3.41
Veres Rivne (1X2)	4.03	4.03
Over 2.5 goals	2.02	2.02
Under 2.5 goals	1.79	1.79

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Karpaty vs Veres Rivne
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 49.5% · Draw 27.4% · Away 23.2%
xG (showing): Karpaty 1.66 — Veres Rivne 1.08 (total xG ≈ 2.74)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 51.6% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +3.7 pts · Est. EV: +4.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 55.0% · No 45.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	30	22	6	2	72
2	LNZ Cherkasy	30	18	6	6	60
3	Polessya	30	18	5	7	59
4	Dynamo Kyiv	30	17	6	7	57
5	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv	30	13	12	5	51
6	Kolos Kovalivka	30	13	10	7	49
7	Kryvbas KR	30	13	9	8	48
8	Zorya Luhansk	30	12	10	8	46
9	Karpaty	30	10	11	9	41
10	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	30	8	8	14	32
11	Veres Rivne	30	7	10	13	31
12	Obolon'-Brovar	30	7	10	13	31
13	Kudrivka	30	7	7	16	28
14	Ruh Lviv	30	6	3	21	21
15	Oleksandria	30	3	8	19	17
16	SK Poltava	30	2	7	21	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	30	71	21	+50	72
2	Dynamo Kyiv	30	66	36	+30	57
3	Kryvbas KR	30	53	46	+7	48
4	Polessya	30	51	21	+30	59
5	Zorya Luhansk	30	42	36	+6	46
6	Karpaty	30	40	31	+9	41
7	LNZ Cherkasy	30	39	17	+22	60
8	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv	30	36	19	+17	51
9	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	30	36	45	-9	32
10	Kudrivka	30	32	48	-16	28
11	Kolos Kovalivka	30	30	25	+5	49
12	Obolon'-Brovar	30	28	49	-21	31
13	Veres Rivne	30	26	40	-14	31
14	Oleksandria	30	24	58	-34	17
15	SK Poltava	30	23	74	-51	13
16	Ruh Lviv	30	20	51	-31	21

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Dynamo Kyiv	30	30.7	10.1	+20.6	57
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	30	29.8	9.8	+20.0	72
3	Polessya	30	36.9	18.0	+18.9	59
4	LNZ Cherkasy	30	28.4	12.4	+16.0	60
5	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv	30	22.0	12.7	+9.3	51
6	Karpaty	30	24.4	20.0	+4.4	41
7	Kolos Kovalivka	30	22.6	22.2	+0.4	49
8	Zorya Luhansk	30	22.1	22.9	-0.8	46
9	Veres Rivne	30	12.6	16.5	-3.9	31
10	Obolon'-Brovar	30	17.2	23.2	-6.0	31
11	Kryvbas KR	30	21.4	27.8	-6.4	48
12	Ruh Lviv	30	16.6	23.8	-7.2	21
13	Kudrivka	30	17.4	29.0	-11.6	28
14	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	30	18.9	32.2	-13.3	32
15	Oleksandria	30	10.5	25.0	-14.5	17
16	SK Poltava	30	10.1	36.0	-25.9	13