Statistics / Football / France. Ligue 2 / Nancy vs Dunkerque

Nancy vs Dunkerque Statistics & Analysis

Nancy Nancy
May 09, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.08
2 0.83
xG Accuracy: 43%
Dunkerque Dunkerque
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nancy Nancy ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 08:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3165114

Closing Odds 2.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Nancy win · Nancy 3–2 Dunkerque
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Nancy (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 24.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nancy (1X2) 39.2 36.1 +3.2
Draw (1X2) 34.9 28.3 +6.6
Dunkerque (1X2) 25.9 35.7 -9.8
Over 2.5 goals 29.9 54.3 -24.4
Under 2.5 goals 70.1 45.7 +24.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 70.1% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.7%. The difference — about 24.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Nancy (1X2) 2.64 2.64 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.37 3.37 0.0
Dunkerque (1X2) 2.67 2.67 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.09 2.09 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligue 2
  • Fixture: Nancy vs Dunkerque
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.2% · Draw 34.9% · Away 25.9%
  • xG (showing): Nancy 1.08 — Dunkerque 0.83 (total xG ≈ 1.91)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 70.1% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +25.1 pts · Est. EV: +52.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 39.0% · No 61.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (16.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ligue 2 Ligue 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Estac Troyes 34 20 7 7 67
2 Saint Etienne 34 18 6 10 60
3 Le Mans 33 15 14 4 59
4 RED Star FC 93 34 16 10 8 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 51
9 PAU 34 12 9 13 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 39
13 Clermont Foot 34 9 10 15 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 32
17 Bastia 33 5 13 15 28
18 Amiens 34 6 6 22 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Estac Troyes 34 60 33 +27 67
2 Saint Etienne 34 59 38 +21 60
3 Reims 34 53 35 +18 56
4 Dunkerque 34 53 45 +8 43
5 Annecy 34 49 39 +10 52
6 Le Mans 33 48 31 +17 59
7 PAU 34 48 62 -14 45
8 RED Star FC 93 34 45 37 +8 58
9 Rodez 34 45 39 +6 58
10 Guingamp 34 42 49 -7 40
11 Montpellier 34 41 31 +10 51
12 Clermont Foot 34 38 44 -6 37
13 Amiens 34 37 65 -28 24
14 Nancy 34 35 52 -17 37
15 Boulogne 34 34 49 -15 36
16 Grenoble 34 33 39 -6 39
17 Laval 34 30 48 -18 32
18 Bastia 33 23 37 -14 28
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Estac Troyes 34 24.9 17.8 +7.1 67
2 PAU 34 24.1 17.0 +7.1 45
3 Reims 34 21.9 15.1 +6.8 56
4 Saint Etienne 34 22.9 18.3 +4.6 60
5 Le Mans 33 20.8 17.6 +3.2 59
6 Dunkerque 34 20.2 17.3 +2.9 43
7 Guingamp 34 21.2 19.1 +2.1 40
8 Boulogne 34 20.0 17.9 +2.1 36
9 Annecy 34 17.4 15.3 +2.1 52
10 RED Star FC 93 34 18.4 16.8 +1.6 58
11 Montpellier 34 21.5 20.0 +1.5 51
12 Nancy 34 19.7 20.1 -0.4 37
13 Bastia 33 16.6 18.1 -1.5 28
14 Grenoble 34 18.9 23.3 -4.4 39
15 Laval 34 14.8 19.7 -4.9 32
16 Rodez 34 20.2 27.6 -7.4 58
17 Clermont Foot 34 16.0 26.0 -10.0 37
18 Amiens 34 14.8 27.2 -12.4 24