Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Sloga Doboj Statistics & Analysis

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

May 10, 2026 - 15:30

3 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Sloga Doboj

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premijer Liga
Fixture: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Sloga Doboj
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.45 — Sloga Doboj 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 75.9% · Implied: 54.2% · Probability edge: +21.7 pts · Est. EV: +31.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 24.1% · No 75.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (16.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

FAQ

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics

Premijer Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Borac Banja Luka	34	26	4	4	82
2	Zrinjski	34	20	7	7	67
3	FK Sarajevo	34	17	8	9	59
4	Velež	34	14	9	11	51
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	34	10	11	13	41
6	Siroki Brijeg	34	10	11	13	41
7	Posušje	34	8	10	16	34
8	Radnik Bijeljina	34	8	10	16	34
9	Rudar Prijedor	34	7	8	19	29
10	Sloga Doboj	34	6	10	18	28

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Borac Banja Luka	34	74	20	+54	82
2	FK Sarajevo	34	50	35	+15	59
3	Zrinjski	34	43	23	+20	67
4	Velež	34	34	29	+5	51
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	34	32	34	-2	41
6	Siroki Brijeg	34	31	46	-15	41
7	Rudar Prijedor	34	29	52	-23	29
8	Radnik Bijeljina	34	27	41	-14	34
9	Posušje	34	25	38	-13	34
10	Sloga Doboj	34	19	46	-27	28