Statistics / Football / Bosnia. Premijer Liga / Posušje vs Velež

Posušje vs Velež Statistics & Analysis

Posušje Posušje
May 09, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Velež Velež
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Posušje Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 05:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2977029

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Posušje 1–1 Velež
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Velež (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 15.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Posušje (1X2) 41.8 56.4 -14.7
Draw (1X2) 25.7 24.9 +0.7
Velež (1X2) 32.6 18.6 +13.9
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 35.0 +15.6
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 65.0 -15.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 50.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.0%. The difference — about 15.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Posušje (1X2) 1.56 1.56 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.53 3.53 0.0
Velež (1X2) 4.73 4.73 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.6 2.6 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premijer Liga
  • Fixture: Posušje vs Velež
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Posušje 1.45 — Velež 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 56.2% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +19.8 pts · Est. EV: +47.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 29.9% · No 70.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (16.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premijer Liga Premijer Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 27 5 4 86
2 Zrinjski 36 21 8 7 71
3 FK Sarajevo 36 19 8 9 65
4 Velež 36 14 9 13 51
5 Siroki Brijeg 36 11 12 13 45
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 10 12 14 42
7 Radnik Bijeljina 36 8 11 17 35
8 Sloga Doboj 36 8 10 18 34
9 Posušje 36 8 10 18 34
10 Rudar Prijedor 36 7 9 20 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 76 20 +56 86
2 FK Sarajevo 36 54 37 +17 65
3 Zrinjski 36 48 25 +23 71
4 Siroki Brijeg 36 37 48 -11 45
5 Velež 36 36 35 +1 51
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 34 37 -3 42
7 Rudar Prijedor 36 31 55 -24 30
8 Radnik Bijeljina 36 27 45 -18 35
9 Posušje 36 25 41 -16 34
10 Sloga Doboj 36 21 46 -25 34