Statistics / Football / Slovenia. 2. SNL / Slovan Ljubljana vs Tabor Sežana

Slovan Ljubljana vs Tabor Sežana Statistics & Analysis

Slovan Ljubljana Slovan Ljubljana
May 17, 2026 - 15:00
5 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Tabor Sežana Tabor Sežana
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Slovan Ljubljana Slovan Ljubljana ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2989584

Closing Odds 3.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Slovan Ljubljana win · Slovan Ljubljana 5–1 Tabor Sežana
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Slovan Ljubljana (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Slovan Ljubljana (1X2) by about 13.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Slovan Ljubljana (1X2) 41.8 28.5 +13.2
Draw (1X2) 25.7 26.2 -0.5
Tabor Sežana (1X2) 32.6 45.3 -12.7
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 50.7 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 49.3 +0.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Slovan Ljubljana (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.5%. The difference — about 13.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Slovan Ljubljana (1X2) 3.11 3.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.39 3.39 0.0
Tabor Sežana (1X2) 1.96 1.96 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.83 1.83 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. SNL
  • Fixture: Slovan Ljubljana vs Tabor Sežana
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Slovan Ljubljana 1.45 — Tabor Sežana 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. SNL 2. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 23 6 1 75
2 Nafta 30 23 6 1 75
3 Triglav 30 20 4 6 64
4 Beltinci 30 18 6 6 60
5 Tabor Sežana 30 15 5 10 50
6 Bistrica 30 13 6 11 45
7 Dravinja 30 10 7 13 37
8 Rudar 30 9 10 11 37
9 Bilje 30 9 7 14 34
10 Dekani 30 8 9 13 33
11 Slovan Ljubljana 30 9 5 16 32
12 Krka 30 6 11 13 29
13 Ilirija 30 6 9 15 27
14 Krško 30 7 5 18 26
15 Gorica 30 4 10 16 22
16 Jesenice 30 4 6 20 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Triglav 30 72 28 +44 64
2 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 70 26 +44 75
3 Nafta 30 65 23 +42 75
4 Beltinci 30 55 25 +30 60
5 Bistrica 30 50 36 +14 45
6 Rudar 30 46 39 +7 37
7 Dekani 30 40 46 -6 33
8 Ilirija 30 38 52 -14 27
9 Tabor Sežana 30 37 33 +4 50
10 Dravinja 30 32 44 -12 37
11 Krka 30 32 51 -19 29
12 Slovan Ljubljana 30 32 52 -20 32
13 Gorica 30 31 45 -14 22
14 Bilje 30 27 47 -20 34
15 Jesenice 30 26 68 -42 18
16 Krško 30 24 62 -38 26
2. SNL Slovenia. 2. SNL Predictions