Statistics / Football / Croatia. HNL / HNK Hajduk Split vs Vukovar

HNK Hajduk Split vs Vukovar Statistics & Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
May 22, 2026 - 16:15
6 2.50
3 1.00
xG Accuracy: 22%
Vukovar Vukovar
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 1-0 6-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1657279

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result HNK Hajduk Split win · HNK Hajduk Split 6–3 Vukovar
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Vukovar (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 7.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 69.0 70.9 -1.9
Draw (1X2) 18.8 18.4 +0.5
Vukovar (1X2) 12.2 10.7 +1.4
Over 2.5 goals 67.9 60.1 +7.8
Under 2.5 goals 32.1 39.9 -7.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.9% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 60.1%. The difference — about 7.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
HNK Hajduk Split (1X2) 1.32 1.32 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.1 5.1 0.0
Vukovar (1X2) 8.74 8.74 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.37 2.37 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: HNK Hajduk Split vs Vukovar
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 69.0% · Draw 18.8% · Away 12.2%
  • xG (showing): HNK Hajduk Split 2.5 — Vukovar 1.0 (total xG ≈ 3.5)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 59.0% · Implied: 51.3% · Probability edge: +7.7 pts · Est. EV: +23.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (9.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 27 5 4 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 20 8 8 68
3 NK Varazdin 36 15 9 12 54
4 HNK Rijeka 36 14 11 11 53
5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 10 14 12 44
6 Istra 1961 36 12 7 17 43
7 NK Slaven Belupo 36 10 11 15 41
8 HNK Gorica 36 11 8 17 41
9 NK Osijek 36 8 11 17 35
10 Vukovar 36 6 10 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 93 28 +65 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 61 36 +25 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 49 36 +13 53
4 NK Varazdin 36 47 46 +1 54
5 NK Slaven Belupo 36 46 61 -15 41
6 HNK Gorica 36 40 48 -8 41
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 40 52 -12 44
8 Istra 1961 36 39 50 -11 43
9 Vukovar 36 37 73 -36 28
10 NK Osijek 36 27 49 -22 35
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 69.3 25.5 +43.8 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 66.5 36.7 +29.8 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 50.7 32.0 +18.7 53
4 HNK Gorica 36 38.3 43.4 -5.1 41
5 NK Osijek 36 38.2 43.3 -5.1 35
6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 41.0 46.5 -5.5 44
7 NK Varazdin 36 36.8 42.5 -5.7 54
8 NK Slaven Belupo 36 35.6 51.7 -16.1 41
9 Vukovar 36 29.1 54.0 -24.9 28
10 Istra 1961 36 31.4 61.4 -30.0 43