Statistics / Football / England. Premier League / Fulham vs Bournemouth

Fulham vs Bournemouth Statistics & Analysis

Fulham Fulham
May 09, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.65
1 1.55
xG Accuracy: 55%
Bournemouth Bournemouth
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fulham Bournemouth ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1533347

Closing Odds 2.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bournemouth win · Fulham 0–1 Bournemouth
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.2 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fulham (1X2) by about 3.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fulham (1X2) 39.1 35.8 +3.3
Draw (1X2) 26.1 26.4 -0.3
Bournemouth (1X2) 34.8 37.8 -3.0
Over 2.5 goals 62.0 58.9 +3.1
Under 2.5 goals 38.0 41.1 -3.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.1% on Fulham (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 35.8%. The difference — about 3.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fulham (1X2) 2.69 2.72 -0.4
Draw (1X2) 3.72 3.68 +0.3
Bournemouth (1X2) 2.57 2.57 +0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.65 -1.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.42 2.36 +1.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.1% · Draw 26.1% · Away 34.8%
  • xG (showing): Fulham 1.65 — Bournemouth 1.55 (total xG ≈ 3.2)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.0% · Implied: 58.8% · Probability edge: +3.2 pts · Est. EV: +4.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.0% · No 35.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Arsenal 38 26 7 5 85
2 Manchester City 38 23 9 6 78
3 Manchester United 38 20 11 7 71
4 Aston Villa 38 19 8 11 65
5 Liverpool 38 17 9 12 60
6 Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 57
7 Sunderland 38 14 12 12 54
8 Brighton 38 14 11 13 53
9 Brentford 38 14 11 13 53
10 Chelsea 38 14 10 14 52
11 Fulham 38 15 7 16 52
12 Newcastle 38 14 7 17 49
13 Everton 38 13 10 15 49
14 Leeds 38 11 14 13 47
15 Crystal Palace 38 11 12 15 45
16 Nottingham Forest 38 11 11 16 44
17 Tottenham 38 10 11 17 41
18 West Ham 38 10 9 19 39
19 Burnley 38 4 10 24 22
20 Wolves 38 3 11 24 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manchester City 38 77 35 +42 78
2 Arsenal 38 71 27 +44 85
3 Manchester United 38 69 50 +19 71
4 Liverpool 38 63 53 +10 60
5 Chelsea 38 58 52 +6 52
6 Bournemouth 38 58 54 +4 57
7 Aston Villa 38 56 49 +7 65
8 Brentford 38 55 52 +3 53
9 Newcastle 38 53 55 -2 49
10 Brighton 38 52 46 +6 53
11 Leeds 38 49 56 -7 47
12 Nottingham Forest 38 48 51 -3 44
13 Tottenham 38 48 57 -9 41
14 Everton 38 47 50 -3 49
15 Fulham 38 47 51 -4 52
16 West Ham 38 46 65 -19 39
17 Sunderland 38 42 48 -6 54
18 Crystal Palace 38 41 51 -10 45
19 Burnley 38 38 75 -37 22
20 Wolves 38 27 68 -41 20
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Arsenal 38 64.5 28.8 +35.7 85
2 Manchester City 38 68.8 42.6 +26.2 78
3 Manchester United 38 64.7 48.5 +16.2 71
4 Liverpool 38 60.1 46.9 +13.2 60
5 Chelsea 38 63.5 51.9 +11.6 52
6 Brighton 38 57.4 49.9 +7.5 53
7 Crystal Palace 38 57.6 50.2 +7.4 45
8 Bournemouth 38 62.5 56.8 +5.7 57
9 Newcastle 38 57.2 51.5 +5.7 49
10 Brentford 38 59.3 54.3 +5.0 53
11 Leeds 38 54.4 55.1 -0.7 47
12 Fulham 38 47.9 52.2 -4.3 52
13 Aston Villa 38 47.6 54.3 -6.7 65
14 Nottingham Forest 38 46.3 56.3 -10.0 44
15 Everton 38 45.9 55.9 -10.0 49
16 Tottenham 38 40.8 52.2 -11.4 41
17 West Ham 38 45.1 56.8 -11.7 39
18 Sunderland 38 39.1 53.4 -14.3 54
19 Wolves 38 35.5 58.1 -22.6 20
20 Burnley 38 32.3 74.9 -42.6 22