Lecce vs Juventus Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Serie A
• Fixture: Lecce vs Juventus
• Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 14.4% · Draw 26.4% · Away 59.2%
• xG (showing): Lecce 0.74 — Juventus 1.71 (total xG ≈ 2.45)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 55.7% · Implied: 51.4% · Probability edge: +4.3 pts · Est. EV: +6.4%
• BTTS (model): Yes 44.2% · No 55.8%
• Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 17, 2026 (UTC)