Lazio vs Inter Statistics & Analysis

Lazio

May 09, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.65

3 1.31

xG Accuracy: 40%

Inter

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lazio Inter ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1629627

Closing Odds 4.06

AI Fair Odds 2.27

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Inter win · Lazio 0–3 Inter

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

Expected: 44.0%
Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lazio (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lazio (1X2) by about 20.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Lazio (1X2)	44.0	23.9	+20.1
Draw (1X2)	27.0	27.8	-0.7
Inter (1X2)	29.0	48.3	-19.4
Over 2.5 goals	56.8	52.3	+4.5
Under 2.5 goals	43.2	47.7	-4.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 44.0% on Lazio (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.9%. The difference — about 20.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Lazio (1X2)	4.06	4.06
Draw (1X2)	3.5	3.5
Inter (1X2)	2.01	2.01
Over 2.5 goals	1.87	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	2.05	2.05

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie A
Fixture: Lazio vs Inter
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 44.0% · Draw 27.0% · Away 29.0%
xG (showing): Lazio 1.65 — Inter 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.96)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 56.8% · Implied: 52.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +7.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 60.5% · No 39.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	34
19	Verona	38	3	12	23	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	18

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Inter	38	89	35	+54	87
2	Como	38	65	29	+36	71
3	Juventus	38	61	34	+27	69
4	AS Roma	38	59	31	+28	73
5	Napoli	38	58	36	+22	76
6	AC Milan	38	53	35	+18	70
7	Atalanta	38	51	36	+15	59
8	Bologna	38	49	46	+3	56
9	Sassuolo	38	46	50	-4	49
10	Udinese	38	45	48	-3	50
11	Torino	38	44	63	-19	45
12	Lazio	38	41	40	+1	54
13	Fiorentina	38	41	50	-9	42
14	Genoa	38	41	51	-10	41
15	Cagliari	38	40	53	-13	43
16	Cremonese	38	32	57	-25	34
17	Parma	38	28	46	-18	45
18	Lecce	38	28	50	-22	38
19	Pisa	38	26	71	-45	18
20	Verona	38	25	61	-36	21

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Inter	38	71.5	34.8	+36.7	87
2	Juventus	38	65.6	32.0	+33.6	69
3	Como	38	62.2	33.8	+28.4	71
4	AC Milan	38	59.6	43.3	+16.3	70
5	AS Roma	38	55.4	39.1	+16.3	73
6	Atalanta	38	57.3	42.2	+15.1	59
7	Napoli	38	49.7	36.7	+13.0	76
8	Fiorentina	38	49.8	47.5	+2.3	42
9	Bologna	38	44.0	45.8	-1.8	56
10	Lazio	38	41.0	43.5	-2.5	54
11	Genoa	38	45.1	48.8	-3.7	41
12	Torino	38	44.8	52.8	-8.0	45
13	Udinese	38	42.0	52.2	-10.2	50
14	Sassuolo	38	42.6	55.3	-12.7	49
15	Verona	38	35.7	50.4	-14.7	21
16	Cagliari	38	38.6	53.8	-15.2	43
17	Pisa	38	39.6	58.9	-19.3	18
18	Cremonese	38	35.0	57.8	-22.8	34
19	Parma	38	32.2	56.6	-24.4	45
20	Lecce	38	30.9	57.4	-26.5	38