Statistics / Football / World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification / Kosovo U21 vs Finland U21

Kosovo U21 vs Finland U21 Statistics & Analysis

Kosovo U21 Kosovo U21
Oct 06, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.15
4 1.45
xG Accuracy: 23%
Finland U21 Finland U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Finland U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11913585

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Kosovo U21 4–4 Finland U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
  • Fixture: Kosovo U21 vs Finland U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-06 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
  • xG (showing): Kosovo U21 1.15 — Finland U21 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.9% · Implied: 48.8% · Probability edge: +5.1 pts · Est. EV: +7.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Spain U21 9 8 0 1 24
2 Finland U21 9 7 1 1 22
3 Romania U21 9 5 1 3 16
4 Kosovo U21 9 4 2 3 14
5 Cyprus U21 9 1 0 8 3
6 San Marino U21 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Spain U21 9 40 4 +36 24
2 Finland U21 9 30 3 +27 22
3 Kosovo U21 9 17 7 +10 14
4 Romania U21 9 11 6 +5 16
5 Cyprus U21 9 6 29 -23 3
6 San Marino U21 9 0 55 -55 0