Statistics / Football / World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification / Republic of Ireland U21 vs England U21

Republic of Ireland U21 vs England U21 Statistics & Analysis

Republic of Ireland U21 Republic of Ireland U21
Oct 06, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.15
1 1.45
xG Accuracy: 53%
England U21 England U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 England U21 Republic of Ireland U21 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11913352

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Republic of Ireland U21 win · Republic of Ireland U21 3–1 England U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
  • Fixture: Republic of Ireland U21 vs England U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-06 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
  • xG (showing): Republic of Ireland U21 1.15 — England U21 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +8.7 pts · Est. EV: +14.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Spain U21 10 9 0 1 27
2 Finland U21 10 7 2 1 23
3 Romania U21 10 5 1 4 16
4 Kosovo U21 10 4 3 3 15
5 Cyprus U21 10 2 0 8 6
6 San Marino U21 10 0 0 10 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Spain U21 10 47 5 +42 27
2 Finland U21 10 34 7 +27 23
3 Kosovo U21 10 21 11 +10 15
4 Romania U21 10 12 13 -1 16
5 Cyprus U21 10 8 29 -21 6
6 San Marino U21 10 0 57 -57 0