Statistics / Football / World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification / Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21

Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21 Statistics & Analysis

Northern Ireland U21 Northern Ireland U21
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 85%
Georgia U21 Georgia U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Georgia U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10757650

Closing Odds 2.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Northern Ireland U21 1–1 Georgia U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Georgia U21 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Georgia U21 (1X2) by about 9.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Northern Ireland U21 (1X2) 33.8 44.4 -10.7
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.5 +1.2
Georgia U21 (1X2) 36.6 27.1 +9.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.8 +5.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.2 -5.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Georgia U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.1%. The difference — about 9.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Northern Ireland U21 (1X2) 2.14 2.14 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.34 3.34 0.0
Georgia U21 (1X2) 3.51 3.51 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.22 2.22 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.66 1.66 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
  • Fixture: Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Northern Ireland U21 1.27 — Georgia U21 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Finland U21 9 7 1 1 22
2 Spain U21 8 7 0 1 21
3 Romania U21 9 5 1 3 16
4 Kosovo U21 9 4 2 3 14
5 Cyprus U21 9 1 0 8 3
6 San Marino U21 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Finland U21 9 30 3 +27 22
2 Spain U21 8 27 4 +23 21
3 Kosovo U21 9 17 7 +10 14
4 Romania U21 9 11 6 +5 16
5 Cyprus U21 9 6 29 -23 3
6 San Marino U21 8 0 42 -42 0
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification Predictions