Statistics / Football / World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification / San Marino U21 vs Spain U21

San Marino U21 vs Spain U21 Statistics & Analysis

San Marino U21 San Marino U21
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:15
0 0.95
13 1.65
xG Accuracy: 3%
Spain U21 Spain U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (13 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Spain U21 Spain U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-13 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10757610

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spain U21 win · San Marino U21 0–13 Spain U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
  • Fixture: San Marino U21 vs Spain U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-01 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 20.2% · Draw 27.5% · Away 52.3%
  • xG (showing): San Marino U21 0.95 — Spain U21 1.65 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.1% · No 48.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.1% · No 48.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Spain U21 9 8 0 1 24
2 Finland U21 9 7 1 1 22
3 Romania U21 9 5 1 3 16
4 Kosovo U21 9 4 2 3 14
5 Cyprus U21 9 1 0 8 3
6 San Marino U21 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Spain U21 9 40 4 +36 24
2 Finland U21 9 30 3 +27 22
3 Kosovo U21 9 17 7 +10 14
4 Romania U21 9 11 6 +5 16
5 Cyprus U21 9 6 29 -23 3
6 San Marino U21 9 0 55 -55 0
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification Predictions