Czech Republic U21 vs Bulgaria U21 Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

Market intelligence

AI match briefing

Model Performance

Market briefing

Model vs. closing implied

Closing-window line move

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings

Czech Republic U21

Sep 30, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.33

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Bulgaria U21

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Czech Republic U21 Czech Republic U21 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 06:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10626895

Closing Odds 1.49

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Czech Republic U21 win · Czech Republic U21 1–0 Bulgaria U21

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bulgaria U21 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bulgaria U21 (1X2) by about 20.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Czech Republic U21 (1X2)	36.6	63.6	-27.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.8	+6.9
Bulgaria U21 (1X2)	33.8	13.6	+20.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.4	+2.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.6	-2.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Bulgaria U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.6%. The difference — about 20.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Czech Republic U21 (1X2)	1.49	1.49
Draw (1X2)	4.16	4.16
Bulgaria U21 (1X2)	6.97	6.97
Over 2.5 goals	2.09	2.09
Under 2.5 goals	1.74	1.74

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Fixture: Czech Republic U21 vs Bulgaria U21
Kickoff: 2026-09-30 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Czech Republic U21 1.33 — Bulgaria U21 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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