Statistics / Football / World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification / Norway U21 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U21

Norway U21 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 Statistics & Analysis

Norway U21 Norway U21
Sep 29, 2026 - 16:00
6 1.49
1 1.11
xG Accuracy: 28%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 Bosnia-Herzegovina U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Norway U21 Norway U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10419468

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Norway U21 win · Norway U21 6–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 (1X2) by about 17.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Norway U21 (1X2) 44.3 75.5 -31.2
Draw (1X2) 29.0 15.5 +13.5
Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 (1X2) 26.7 9.0 +17.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.4 -11.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.6 +11.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.7% on Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.0%. The difference — about 17.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Norway U21 (1X2) 1.25 1.25 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.09 6.09 0.0
Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 (1X2) 10.53 10.53 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.6 1.6 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.34 2.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Norway U21; market prices Norway U21 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Norway U21 1.49 xG vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 1.11 → Norway U21 44.3%
  • Market: Norway U21 ~75.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Finland U21 9 7 1 1 22
2 Spain U21 8 7 0 1 21
3 Romania U21 9 5 1 3 16
4 Kosovo U21 9 4 2 3 14
5 Cyprus U21 9 1 0 8 3
6 San Marino U21 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Finland U21 9 30 3 +27 22
2 Spain U21 8 27 4 +23 21
3 Kosovo U21 9 17 7 +10 14
4 Romania U21 9 11 6 +5 16
5 Cyprus U21 9 6 29 -23 3
6 San Marino U21 8 0 42 -42 0
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification Predictions