Statistics / Football / World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification / Slovakia U21 vs Republic of Ireland U21

Slovakia U21 vs Republic of Ireland U21 Statistics & Analysis

Slovakia U21 Slovakia U21
Sep 25, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 59%
Republic of Ireland U21 Republic of Ireland U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Republic of Ireland U21 Republic of Ireland U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9565286

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Republic of Ireland U21 win · Slovakia U21 0–2 Republic of Ireland U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Republic of Ireland U21 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Republic of Ireland U21 (1X2) by about 9.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Slovakia U21 (1X2) 33.4 45.5 -12.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.9 +2.7
Republic of Ireland U21 (1X2) 37.0 27.6 +9.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.1 -0.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.9 +0.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Republic of Ireland U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.6%. The difference — about 9.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Slovakia U21 (1X2) 2.09 2.09 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.54 3.54 0.0
Republic of Ireland U21 (1X2) 3.44 3.44 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.95 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
  • Fixture: Slovakia U21 vs Republic of Ireland U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Slovakia U21 1.26 — Republic of Ireland U21 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Finland U21 9 7 1 1 22
2 Spain U21 8 7 0 1 21
3 Romania U21 9 5 1 3 16
4 Kosovo U21 9 4 2 3 14
5 Cyprus U21 9 1 0 8 3
6 San Marino U21 8 0 0 8 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Finland U21 9 30 3 +27 22
2 Spain U21 8 27 4 +23 21
3 Kosovo U21 9 17 7 +10 14
4 Romania U21 9 11 6 +5 16
5 Cyprus U21 9 6 29 -23 3
6 San Marino U21 8 0 42 -42 0
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification World. UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification Predictions