France U21 vs Luxembourg U21 Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification — Standings

France U21

Oct 03, 2026 - 17:00

3 1.50

2 1.10

xG Accuracy: 52%

Luxembourg U21

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 France U21 France U21 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11256304

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result France U21 win · France U21 3–2 Luxembourg U21

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Fixture: France U21 vs Luxembourg U21
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.2%
xG (showing): France U21 1.5 — Luxembourg U21 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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