Estudiantes La Plata vs Rosario Central Statistics & Analysis

Sep 26, 2026 - 19:00

1 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 57%

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 25, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10762019

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Rosario Central win · Estudiantes La Plata 1–3 Rosario Central

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Supercoppa Internazionale
Fixture: Estudiantes La Plata vs Rosario Central
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Estudiantes La Plata 1.32 — Rosario Central 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 31.5% · Probability edge: +16.7 pts · Est. EV: +51.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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