Statistiche / Calcio / Uruguay. Primera División Apertura Uruguay / Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers

Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers Statistics & Analysis

Cerro Cerro
Oct 04, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 58%
Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11687200

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Montevideo Wanderers win · Cerro 0–2 Montevideo Wanderers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División Apertura Uruguay - Apertura
  • Fixture: Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Cerro 1.28 — Montevideo Wanderers 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.6% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Apertura Uruguay Primera División Apertura Uruguay — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Peñarol 32 19 7 6 63
2 Deportivo Maldonado 32 17 8 7 59
3 Montevideo City Torque 32 17 6 9 57
4 Racing Montevideo 32 14 11 7 53
5 Club Nacional 31 16 4 11 52
6 Liverpool Montevideo 32 13 11 8 50
7 Montevideo Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
8 Albion FC 32 11 7 14 40
9 Juventud 32 10 10 12 40
10 Central Español 31 10 8 13 38
11 Cerro 32 10 6 16 36
12 Defensor Sporting 32 8 11 13 35
13 Boston River 32 9 7 16 34
14 Cerro Largo 32 8 9 15 33
15 Danubio 32 5 14 13 29
16 Progreso 32 8 5 19 29
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Montevideo City Torque 32 53 37 +16 57
2 Peñarol 32 51 26 +25 63
3 Deportivo Maldonado 32 50 28 +22 59
4 Club Nacional 31 47 38 +9 52
5 Liverpool Montevideo 32 43 31 +12 50
6 Albion FC 32 42 42 0 40
7 Montevideo Wanderers 32 41 39 +2 50
8 Juventud 32 37 39 -2 40
9 Racing Montevideo 32 36 27 +9 53
10 Central Español 31 32 42 -10 38
11 Boston River 32 32 43 -11 34
12 Defensor Sporting 32 30 39 -9 35
13 Cerro Largo 32 29 37 -8 33
14 Progreso 32 28 47 -19 29
15 Danubio 32 26 41 -15 29
16 Cerro 32 26 47 -21 36
Primera División Apertura Uruguay Uruguay. Primera División Apertura Uruguay Pronostici