Statistiche / Calcio / Brasile. Coppa Paulista / União São João vs Grêmio Prudente

União São João vs Grêmio Prudente Statistics & Analysis

União São João União São João
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 74%
Grêmio Prudente Grêmio Prudente
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Grêmio Prudente União São João ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11259153

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result União São João win · União São João 2–1 Grêmio Prudente
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Coppa Paulista
  • Fixture: União São João vs Grêmio Prudente
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): União São João 1.25 — Grêmio Prudente 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.6% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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