Statistiche / Calcio / Mondo. Amichevoli Club / Atlético Nacional vs Chapecoense

Atlético Nacional vs Chapecoense Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Nacional Atlético Nacional
Sep 26, 2026 - 20:30
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Chapecoense Chapecoense
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Atlético Nacional Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10411871

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Atlético Nacional 1–1 Chapecoense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Amichevoli Club
  • Fixture: Atlético Nacional vs Chapecoense
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.4% · Draw 27.8% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Nacional 1.35 — Chapecoense 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.2% · Probability edge: +15.6 pts · Est. EV: +32.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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