Aigle Noir vs Ngozi City Statistics & Analysis

Aigle Noir

Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.48

1 1.12

xG Accuracy: 84%

Ngozi City

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Aigle Noir Aigle Noir ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11236187

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Aigle Noir win · Aigle Noir 2–1 Ngozi City

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Ligue A Burundi
Fixture: Aigle Noir vs Ngozi City
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): Aigle Noir 1.48 — Ngozi City 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Ligue A Burundi — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Royal Vision	4	3	1	0	10
2	Muzinga	5	3	1	1	10
3	Aigle Noir	5	3	1	1	10
4	Ngozi City	5	3	0	2	9
5	Rukinzo	4	2	2	0	8
6	Vital'O	4	2	2	0	8
7	Le Messager Ngozi	3	2	1	0	7
8	Olympic Star	5	1	3	1	6
9	Bumamuru	4	1	1	2	4
10	Never Give Up Academy	4	1	1	2	4
11	Musongati	5	1	1	3	4
12	Kayanza United	4	0	3	1	3
13	Flambeau du Centre	3	0	2	1	2
14	Inter Star	3	0	1	2	1
15	Panthère Noir	3	0	1	2	1
16	Young Star	5	0	1	4	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Aigle Noir	5	10	7	+3	10
2	Rukinzo	4	9	1	+8	8
3	Royal Vision	4	9	3	+6	10
4	Muzinga	5	7	3	+4	10
5	Ngozi City	5	7	5	+2	9
6	Vital'O	4	7	5	+2	8
7	Olympic Star	5	5	5	0	6
8	Bumamuru	4	4	5	-1	4
9	Le Messager Ngozi	3	3	1	+2	7
10	Inter Star	3	3	5	-2	1
11	Musongati	5	3	7	-4	4
12	Flambeau du Centre	3	2	3	-1	2
13	Never Give Up Academy	4	2	4	-2	4
14	Panthère Noir	3	2	4	-2	1
15	Young Star	5	2	16	-14	1
16	Kayanza United	4	1	2	-1	3