Primavera SP vs Noroeste Statistics & Analysis

Primavera SP

Sep 12, 2026 - 21:00

2 1.44

2 1.16

xG Accuracy: 68%

Noroeste

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Primavera SP Pareggio ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7740033

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Primavera SP 2–2 Noroeste

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Coppa Paulista
Fixture: Primavera SP vs Noroeste
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Primavera SP 1.44 — Noroeste 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.6% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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