Defensor Sporting vs Plaza Colonia Statistics & Analysis

Defensor Sporting

Sep 30, 2026 - 19:00

0 1.42

1 1.18

xG Accuracy: 64%

Plaza Colonia

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Defensor Sporting Plaza Colonia ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7955935

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Plaza Colonia win · Defensor Sporting 0–1 Plaza Colonia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Copa Uruguay
Fixture: Defensor Sporting vs Plaza Colonia
Kickoff: 2026-09-30 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Defensor Sporting 1.42 — Plaza Colonia 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.1% · Implied: 42.0% · Probability edge: +12.1 pts · Est. EV: +35.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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