Statistiche / Calcio / Giappone. Coppa J-League / Tochigi City vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Tochigi City vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Statistics & Analysis

Tochigi City Tochigi City
Sep 29, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 58%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10417950

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · Tochigi City 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Coppa J-League
  • Fixture: Tochigi City vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-29 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Tochigi City 1.28 — Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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