Trygg/Lade vs Molde Statistics & Analysis

Trygg/Lade

Sep 16, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.22

5 1.38

xG Accuracy: 26%

Molde

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Molde Molde ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-5 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 15:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7923590

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Molde win · Trygg/Lade 0–5 Molde

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Coppa NM
Fixture: Trygg/Lade vs Molde
Kickoff: 2026-09-16 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Trygg/Lade 1.22 — Molde 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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