Portul Constanta vs Dunarea Calarasi Statistics & Analysis

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Portul Constanta

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 75%

Dunarea Calarasi

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Portul Constanta Dunarea Calarasi ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10105634

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Dunarea Calarasi win · Portul Constanta 1–2 Dunarea Calarasi

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga III - Serie 4
Fixture: Portul Constanta vs Dunarea Calarasi
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Portul Constanta 1.32 — Dunarea Calarasi 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Liga III - Serie 4 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Agricola Borcea	7	6	0	1	18
2	Agigea	7	4	2	1	14
3	Înainte Modelu	7	4	1	2	13
4	Axiopolis	7	4	1	2	13
5	Sporting Lieşti	7	4	0	3	12
6	Progresul Fundulea	7	4	0	3	12
7	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	7	4	0	3	12
8	Dunarea Calarasi	7	3	1	3	10
9	Unirea Braniștea	7	3	0	4	9
10	Gloria Băneasa	7	1	1	5	4
11	Portul Constanta	7	1	0	6	3
12	FC Oţelul II	7	1	0	6	3

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Sporting Lieşti	7	24	16	+8	12
2	Agricola Borcea	7	19	9	+10	18
3	Progresul Fundulea	7	16	12	+4	12
4	Înainte Modelu	7	15	11	+4	13
5	Axiopolis	7	15	12	+3	13
6	Unirea Braniștea	7	13	12	+1	9
7	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	7	13	14	-1	12
8	Agigea	7	11	6	+5	14
9	Portul Constanta	7	11	18	-7	3
10	Dunarea Calarasi	7	7	10	-3	10
11	FC Oţelul II	7	6	20	-14	3
12	Gloria Băneasa	7	5	15	-10	4