Sporting Lieşti vs Înainte Modelu Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Lieşti

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

5 1.32

4 1.28

xG Accuracy: 17%

Înainte Modelu

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Sporting Lieşti Sporting Lieşti ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-4 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8690130

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sporting Lieşti win · Sporting Lieşti 5–4 Înainte Modelu

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga III - Serie 4
Fixture: Sporting Lieşti vs Înainte Modelu
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Sporting Lieşti 1.32 — Înainte Modelu 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Liga III - Serie 4 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Agigea	5	4	1	0	13
2	Agricola Borcea	5	4	0	1	12
3	Înainte Modelu	5	3	1	1	10
4	Sporting Lieşti	5	3	0	2	9
5	Progresul Fundulea	5	3	0	2	9
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	5	3	0	2	9
7	Axiopolis	5	2	1	2	7
8	Unirea Braniștea	5	2	0	3	6
9	Dunarea Calarasi	5	2	0	3	6
10	Gloria Băneasa	5	1	1	3	4
11	Portul Constanta	5	1	0	4	3
12	FC Oţelul II	5	0	0	5	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Sporting Lieşti	5	15	10	+5	9
2	Înainte Modelu	5	14	10	+4	10
3	Progresul Fundulea	5	13	9	+4	9
4	Agigea	5	11	5	+6	13
5	Agricola Borcea	5	11	5	+6	12
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	5	10	10	0	9
7	Unirea Braniștea	5	9	8	+1	6
8	Portul Constanta	5	9	14	-5	3
9	Axiopolis	5	8	8	0	7
10	Dunarea Calarasi	5	5	9	-4	6
11	Gloria Băneasa	5	3	10	-7	4
12	FC Oţelul II	5	3	13	-10	0