Mosul vs Naft Statistics & Analysis

Mosul

Sep 18, 2026 - 15:45

0 1.33

1 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Naft

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Mosul Naft ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8203241

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Naft win · Mosul 0–1 Naft

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Campionato Iracheno
Fixture: Mosul vs Naft
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 15:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Mosul 1.33 — Naft 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Campionato Iracheno — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Al-Karma	8	6	2	0	20
2	Al Zawra'a	8	5	3	0	18
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	17
4	Newroz	8	4	3	1	15
5	Al Shorta	8	4	3	1	15
6	Naft	8	4	3	1	15
7	Al-Jolan SC	8	2	4	2	10
8	Duhok	8	1	6	1	9
9	Diyala	8	2	3	3	9
10	Al Minaa Basra	8	2	3	3	9
11	Zakho	8	2	3	3	9
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	1	5	2	8
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	1	5	2	8
14	Mosul	8	2	2	4	8
15	Al Karkh	8	2	1	5	7
16	Al Kahrabaa	8	1	4	3	7
17	Al Talaba	8	1	4	3	7
18	Naft Maysan	8	1	4	3	7
19	Gharraf	8	1	2	5	5
20	Karbala	8	1	2	5	5

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Al Zawra'a	8	15	3	+12	18
2	Al-Karma	8	14	5	+9	20
3	Newroz	8	13	4	+9	15
4	Diyala	8	13	14	-1	9
5	Erbil	8	12	3	+9	17
6	Duhok	8	11	11	0	9
7	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	8	11	12	-1	8
8	Al Karkh	8	10	14	-4	7
9	Al Shorta	8	9	4	+5	15
10	Naft	8	9	5	+4	15
11	Mosul	8	9	12	-3	8
12	Al Talaba	8	9	14	-5	7
13	Al-Jolan SC	8	8	9	-1	10
14	Al Minaa Basra	8	8	10	-2	9
15	Zakho	8	7	11	-4	9
16	Al Kahrabaa	8	6	10	-4	7
17	Naft Maysan	8	6	11	-5	7
18	Karbala	8	6	15	-9	5
19	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	4	5	-1	8
20	Gharraf	8	4	12	-8	5