Ancona vs Montecchio Gallo Statistics & Analysis

Ancona

Sep 12, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.44

1 1.16

xG Accuracy: 64%

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Montecchio Gallo

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Ancona Montecchio Gallo ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7438552

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Montecchio Gallo win · Ancona 0–1 Montecchio Gallo

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie D Girone F
Fixture: Ancona vs Montecchio Gallo
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Ancona 1.44 — Montecchio Gallo 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie D Girone F — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	L'Aquila	2	2	0	0	6
2	Città di Foligno	2	2	0	0	6
3	Teramo	2	1	1	0	4
4	Santegidiese	2	1	1	0	4
5	Vigor Senigallia	1	1	0	0	3
6	Angelana	1	1	0	0	3
7	Ancona	2	1	0	1	3
8	Montecchio Gallo	2	1	0	1	3
9	Fossombrone	2	1	0	1	3
10	Recanatese	2	0	2	0	2
11	San Nicolò	2	0	1	1	1
12	Lanciano FC	2	0	1	1	1
13	Pietralunga	2	0	1	1	1
14	Sporting Trestina	2	0	1	1	1
15	Real Giulianova	1	0	0	1	0
16	Termoli Calcio	1	0	0	1	0
17	Atletico Ascoli	1	0	0	1	0
18	Maceratese	1	0	0	1	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	L'Aquila	2	5	0	+5	6
2	Teramo	2	5	2	+3	4
3	Vigor Senigallia	1	5	2	+3	3
4	Città di Foligno	2	3	1	+2	6
5	Santegidiese	2	3	2	+1	4
6	San Nicolò	2	3	4	-1	1
7	Angelana	1	2	0	+2	3
8	Ancona	2	2	2	0	3
9	Montecchio Gallo	2	2	2	0	3
10	Fossombrone	2	2	5	-3	3
11	Sporting Trestina	2	2	5	-3	1
12	Recanatese	2	1	1	0	2
13	Lanciano FC	2	1	2	-1	1
14	Real Giulianova	1	1	2	-1	0
15	Pietralunga	2	0	1	-1	1
16	Termoli Calcio	1	0	1	-1	0
17	Atletico Ascoli	1	0	2	-2	0
18	Maceratese	1	0	3	-3	0