Statistiche / Calcio / Italia. Serie D Girone F / Montecchio Gallo vs Santegidiese

Montecchio Gallo vs Santegidiese Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Montecchio Gallo
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
⚽
Santegidiese
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Montecchio Gallo Santegidiese ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6358576

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Santegidiese win · Montecchio Gallo 1–2 Santegidiese
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie D Girone F
  • Fixture: Montecchio Gallo vs Santegidiese
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Montecchio Gallo 1.32 — Santegidiese 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Girone F Serie D Girone F — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 L'Aquila 2 2 0 0 6
2 Città di Foligno 2 2 0 0 6
3 Teramo 2 1 1 0 4
4 Santegidiese 2 1 1 0 4
5 Vigor Senigallia 1 1 0 0 3
6 Angelana 1 1 0 0 3
7 Ancona 2 1 0 1 3
8 Montecchio Gallo 2 1 0 1 3
9 Fossombrone 2 1 0 1 3
10 Recanatese 2 0 2 0 2
11 San Nicolò 2 0 1 1 1
12 Lanciano FC 2 0 1 1 1
13 Pietralunga 2 0 1 1 1
14 Sporting Trestina 2 0 1 1 1
15 Real Giulianova 1 0 0 1 0
16 Termoli Calcio 1 0 0 1 0
17 Atletico Ascoli 1 0 0 1 0
18 Maceratese 1 0 0 1 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 L'Aquila 2 5 0 +5 6
2 Teramo 2 5 2 +3 4
3 Vigor Senigallia 1 5 2 +3 3
4 Città di Foligno 2 3 1 +2 6
5 Santegidiese 2 3 2 +1 4
6 San Nicolò 2 3 4 -1 1
7 Angelana 1 2 0 +2 3
8 Ancona 2 2 2 0 3
9 Montecchio Gallo 2 2 2 0 3
10 Fossombrone 2 2 5 -3 3
11 Sporting Trestina 2 2 5 -3 1
12 Recanatese 2 1 1 0 2
13 Lanciano FC 2 1 2 -1 1
14 Real Giulianova 1 1 2 -1 0
15 Pietralunga 2 0 1 -1 1
16 Termoli Calcio 1 0 1 -1 0
17 Atletico Ascoli 1 0 2 -2 0
18 Maceratese 1 0 3 -3 0
Serie D Girone F Italia. Serie D Girone F Pronostici