Nocerina vs Ebolitana Statistics & Analysis

Nocerina

Sep 06, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.46

1 1.14

xG Accuracy: 83%

⚽

Ebolitana

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Nocerina Nocerina ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6358318

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Nocerina win · Nocerina 2–1 Ebolitana

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie D Girone H
Fixture: Nocerina vs Ebolitana
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
xG (showing): Nocerina 1.46 — Ebolitana 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie D Girone H — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Virtus Francavilla	4	4	0	0	12
2	Bisceglie	4	3	0	1	9
3	Gravina	4	2	2	0	8
4	Turris	4	2	2	0	8
5	Real Agro Aversa	4	2	1	1	7
6	Real Forio 2014	4	2	1	1	7
7	Nocerina	4	2	1	1	7
8	Martina Franca	4	2	0	2	6
9	Gladiator	4	2	0	2	6
10	Manfredonia	4	1	2	1	5
11	Nardò	4	1	2	1	5
12	USD Palmese	4	1	1	2	4
13	Melfi	4	1	1	2	4
14	Ebolitana	4	1	1	2	4
15	Francavilla	4	1	0	3	3
16	Brindisi	4	1	0	3	3
17	Ischia	4	0	1	3	1
18	Fidelis Andria	4	0	1	3	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Real Agro Aversa	4	9	7	+2	7
2	Virtus Francavilla	4	8	3	+5	12
3	Bisceglie	4	8	4	+4	9
4	Gravina	4	8	4	+4	8
5	Real Forio 2014	4	8	6	+2	7
6	Martina Franca	4	8	7	+1	6
7	Nocerina	4	8	8	0	7
8	Manfredonia	4	7	5	+2	5
9	Gladiator	4	7	8	-1	6
10	Turris	4	6	4	+2	8
11	USD Palmese	4	5	7	-2	4
12	Ischia	4	5	8	-3	1
13	Ebolitana	4	4	7	-3	4
14	Brindisi	4	4	8	-4	3
15	Fidelis Andria	4	4	8	-4	1
16	Nardò	4	3	4	-1	5
17	Francavilla	4	3	5	-2	3
18	Melfi	4	2	4	-2	4