Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio Statistics & Analysis

Ternana

Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00

4 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 44%

Montevarchi Calcio

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Ternana Ternana ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11672313

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ternana win · Ternana 4–1 Montevarchi Calcio

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie D Girone E
Fixture: Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Ternana 1.3 — Montevarchi Calcio 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie D Girone E — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Gavorrano	6	4	2	0	14
2	Prato	6	4	2	0	14
3	Lucchese	6	4	1	1	13
4	Tau Altopascio	6	4	0	2	12
5	Scandicci	6	3	2	1	11
6	Flaminia	6	3	2	1	11
7	Seravezza	6	3	1	2	10
8	Robur Siena	6	3	1	2	10
9	Ternana	6	2	2	2	8
10	Terranuova Traiana	6	2	2	2	8
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	2	2	2	8
12	Montevarchi Calcio	6	2	1	3	7
13	Mezzolara	6	1	4	1	7
14	Rondinella	6	1	2	3	5
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	1	1	4	4
16	Progresso	6	1	0	5	3
17	Grassina	6	0	2	4	2
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	0	1	5	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Lucchese	6	16	11	+5	13
2	Seravezza	6	14	5	+9	10
3	Robur Siena	6	13	8	+5	10
4	Terranuova Traiana	6	11	9	+2	8
5	Scandicci	6	10	5	+5	11
6	Tau Altopascio	6	10	12	-2	12
7	Gavorrano	6	9	3	+6	14
8	Prato	6	9	4	+5	14
9	Ternana	6	9	5	+4	8
10	Flaminia	6	9	9	0	11
11	Montevarchi Calcio	6	9	11	-2	7
12	San Donato Tavarnelle	6	8	8	0	8
13	Sasso Marconi Zola	6	6	11	-5	4
14	Grassina	6	6	13	-7	2
15	Rondinella	6	5	10	-5	5
16	Mezzolara	6	4	6	-2	7
17	Progresso	6	4	15	-11	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	6	3	10	-7	1