USD Casatese vs Arconatese Statistics & Analysis

USD Casatese

Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 77%

Arconatese

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 USD Casatese USD Casatese ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6357975

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result USD Casatese win · USD Casatese 2–1 Arconatese

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie D Girone D
Fixture: USD Casatese vs Arconatese
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): USD Casatese 1.32 — Arconatese 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie D Girone D — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Pistoiese	4	4	0	0	12
2	Pro Patria	4	4	0	0	12
3	Pro Sesto	4	3	0	1	9
4	Lentigione	4	3	0	1	9
5	USD Casatese	4	2	1	1	7
6	Cittadella Vis Modena	4	2	1	1	7
7	Castellanzese	4	2	0	2	6
8	Sant'Angelo	4	1	3	0	6
9	Città di Varese	4	1	2	1	5
10	Correggese	4	1	2	1	5
11	Varesina	4	1	1	2	4
12	Coriano	4	1	1	2	4
13	Pavia	3	0	3	0	3
14	Oltrepò	3	1	0	2	3
15	Solbiatese	4	0	2	2	2
16	Crema	4	0	1	3	1
17	Arconatese	4	0	1	3	1
18	Pontedera	4	0	0	4	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Pistoiese	4	11	1	+10	12
2	Pro Patria	4	10	3	+7	12
3	Pro Sesto	4	10	3	+7	9
4	Castellanzese	4	7	4	+3	6
5	Lentigione	4	6	4	+2	9
6	USD Casatese	4	6	4	+2	7
7	Correggese	4	5	6	-1	5
8	Varesina	4	5	6	-1	4
9	Cittadella Vis Modena	4	4	3	+1	7
10	Sant'Angelo	4	4	3	+1	6
11	Città di Varese	4	4	3	+1	5
12	Coriano	4	3	4	-1	4
13	Pontedera	4	3	12	-9	0
14	Oltrepò	3	2	3	-1	3
15	Arconatese	4	2	11	-9	1
16	Solbiatese	4	1	6	-5	2
17	Crema	4	1	8	-7	1
18	Pavia	3	0	0	0	3