Statistiche / Calcio / Italia. Serie D Girone I / Castrum Favara vs Licata

Castrum Favara vs Licata Statistics & Analysis

Castrum Favara Castrum Favara
Sep 16, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 85%
Licata Licata
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Castrum Favara Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 08:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7883574

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Castrum Favara 1–1 Licata
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie D Girone I
  • Fixture: Castrum Favara vs Licata
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Castrum Favara 1.4 — Licata 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Girone I Serie D Girone I — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Reggina 4 4 0 0 12
2 Igea Virtus 4 3 1 0 10
3 Sambiase 4 3 1 0 10
4 Licata 5 2 2 1 8
5 Vibonese 4 2 1 1 7
6 Nissa 4 2 1 1 7
7 Digiesse PraiaTortora 4 1 3 0 6
8 Milazzo 4 2 0 2 6
9 Calcio Avola 4 2 0 2 6
10 Castrum Favara 4 1 1 2 4
11 Modica 4 1 1 2 4
12 Palermo 4 1 1 2 4
13 Gela 4 1 1 2 3
14 Ragusa 4 0 2 2 2
15 Vigor Lamezia 4 0 2 2 2
16 Siracusa 4 2 2 0 1
17 Enna 5 0 1 4 1
18 Trapani 1905 4 0 0 4
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Reggina 4 13 0 +13 12
2 Igea Virtus 4 13 8 +5 10
3 Vibonese 4 11 5 +6 7
4 Nissa 4 8 6 +2 7
5 Digiesse PraiaTortora 4 7 2 +5 6
6 Siracusa 4 7 4 +3 1
7 Calcio Avola 4 7 10 -3 6
8 Licata 5 6 7 -1 8
9 Palermo 4 6 8 -2 4
10 Sambiase 4 5 2 +3 10
11 Castrum Favara 4 5 4 +1 4
12 Milazzo 4 4 5 -1 6
13 Gela 4 4 5 -1 3
14 Ragusa 4 4 7 -3 2
15 Vigor Lamezia 4 4 9 -5 2
16 Modica 4 3 4 -1 4
17 Trapani 1905 4 1 10 -9
18 Enna 5 0 12 -12 1