Pro Palazzolo vs Caldiero Terme Statistics & Analysis

Pro Palazzolo

Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.42

3 1.18

xG Accuracy: 54%

Caldiero Terme

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Pro Palazzolo Caldiero Terme ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13210376

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Caldiero Terme win · Pro Palazzolo 1–3 Caldiero Terme

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie D Girone B
Fixture: Pro Palazzolo vs Caldiero Terme
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Pro Palazzolo 1.42 — Caldiero Terme 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie D Girone B — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Chievo	6	5	0	1	15
2	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	5	0	1	15
3	Piacenza	6	3	2	1	11
4	Pro Palazzolo	6	3	1	2	10
5	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	2	3	1	9
6	Leon	6	2	3	1	9
7	Caldiero Terme	6	2	3	1	9
8	Milan II	4	3	0	1	9
9	Brusaporto	6	3	0	3	9
10	Real Calepina	6	2	2	2	8
11	Virtus Verona	6	2	2	2	8
12	Villa Valle	6	1	4	1	7
13	Pavonese	5	2	1	2	7
14	Scanzorosciate	6	1	2	3	5
15	Club Milano	6	1	1	4	4
16	Rovato Vertovese	6	0	3	3	3
17	Fiorenzuola	7	0	3	4	3
18	Tritium	6	0	2	4	2

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Chievo	6	14	6	+8	15
2	Real Calepina	6	11	9	+2	8
3	Piacenza	6	10	4	+6	11
4	Leon	6	9	7	+2	9
5	Caldiero Terme	6	9	8	+1	9
6	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	6	8	4	+4	9
7	Milan II	4	8	7	+1	9
8	Rovato Vertovese	6	8	12	-4	3
9	Nibbiano & Valtidone	6	7	2	+5	15
10	Brusaporto	6	7	8	-1	9
11	Tritium	6	7	15	-8	2
12	Villa Valle	6	6	6	0	7
13	Pro Palazzolo	6	6	7	-1	10
14	Pavonese	5	5	6	-1	7
15	Virtus Verona	6	5	7	-2	8
16	Scanzorosciate	6	5	8	-3	5
17	Club Milano	6	4	7	-3	4
18	Fiorenzuola	7	1	7	-6	3