Statistiche / Calcio / Italia. Serie D Girone A / Derthona vs Millesimo

Derthona vs Millesimo Statistics & Analysis

Derthona Derthona
Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
Millesimo
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Millesimo Derthona ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8673395

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Derthona win · Derthona 1–0 Millesimo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D Girone A
  • Fixture: Derthona vs Millesimo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Derthona 1.29 — Millesimo 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Girone A Serie D Girone A — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Derthona 4 3 1 0 10
2 Saluzzo 4 2 2 0 8
3 Biellese 4 2 2 0 8
4 Lascaris 4 2 2 0 8
5 Fezzanese 4 2 1 1 7
6 Asti 4 2 1 1 7
7 Millesimo 4 2 0 2 6
8 Alessandria 3 2 0 1 6
9 Sanremese 4 1 2 1 5
10 Gozzano 4 1 2 1 5
11 Imperia 3 1 1 1 4
12 Ligorna 4 1 1 2 4
13 Chisola 3 1 1 1 4
14 Sestri Levante 4 1 1 2 4
15 Bra 4 0 2 2 2
16 Borgosesia 3 0 2 1 2
17 Valenzana 4 0 1 3 1
18 Celle Varazze 4 0 0 4 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Saluzzo 4 8 4 +4 8
2 Ligorna 4 7 8 -1 4
3 Derthona 4 6 3 +3 10
4 Biellese 4 6 3 +3 8
5 Fezzanese 4 6 3 +3 7
6 Millesimo 4 6 4 +2 6
7 Asti 4 6 5 +1 7
8 Sanremese 4 5 5 0 5
9 Alessandria 3 5 6 -1 6
10 Sestri Levante 4 4 6 -2 4
11 Valenzana 4 4 7 -3 1
12 Lascaris 4 3 1 +2 8
13 Imperia 3 3 3 0 4
14 Gozzano 4 2 2 0 5
15 Chisola 3 2 3 -1 4
16 Bra 4 2 4 -2 2
17 Borgosesia 3 1 3 -2 2
18 Celle Varazze 4 1 7 -6 0
Serie D Girone A Italia. Serie D Girone A Pronostici