Académico do Fundão vs Guarda Statistics & Analysis

Académico do Fundão

Aug 30, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.30

6 1.30

xG Accuracy: 19%

Guarda

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Académico do Fundão Guarda ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-6 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5300237

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Guarda win · Académico do Fundão 0–6 Guarda

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Taça de Portugal
Fixture: Académico do Fundão vs Guarda
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Académico do Fundão 1.3 — Guarda 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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