Statistiche / Calcio / Paesi Bassi. Derde Divisie / TEC vs DVS '33 Ermelo

TEC vs DVS '33 Ermelo Statistics & Analysis

TEC TEC
Sep 12, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.20
4 1.40
xG Accuracy: 23%
DVS '33 Ermelo DVS '33 Ermelo
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 DVS '33 Ermelo Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-4 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7434307

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · TEC 4–4 DVS '33 Ermelo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Saturday
  • Fixture: TEC vs DVS '33 Ermelo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): TEC 1.2 — DVS '33 Ermelo 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 18, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie Derde Divisie — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 SC Genemuiden 5 5 0 0 15
1 FC Lisse 5 5 0 0 15
2 ACV 5 4 1 0 13
2 Noordwijk 5 4 1 0 13
3 Harkemase Boys 5 4 1 0 13
3 Dongen 4 3 0 1 9
4 Excelsior '31 5 3 1 1 10
4 Poortugaal 5 3 0 2 9
5 VV Scherpenzeel 4 3 0 1 9
5 Rijnvogels 4 2 2 0 8
6 Sportlust '46 5 2 3 0 9
6 Excelsior Maassluis 5 2 2 1 8
7 Purmersteijn 5 2 2 1 8
7 UDI '19 4 2 1 1 7
8 ADO '20 4 2 1 1 7
8 UNA 4 1 3 0 6
9 TEC 5 2 1 2 7
9 Roosendaal 5 2 0 3 6
10 Hoogeveen 5 2 1 2 7
10 Gemert 5 1 3 1 6
11 Sparta Nijkerk 5 1 2 2 5
11 GOES 4 1 2 1 5
12 Dovo 5 1 2 2 5
12 Blauw Geel '38 5 1 2 2 5
13 Staphorst 5 0 3 2 3
13 Groene Ster 5 1 2 2 5
14 Eemdijk 5 1 0 4 3
14 VVSB 5 1 1 3 4
15 Hercules 5 1 0 4 3
15 Zwaluwen 5 1 1 3 4
16 DVS '33 Ermelo 5 0 2 3 2
16 Achilles Veen 5 1 0 4 3
17 Hollandia 5 0 1 4 1
17 TOGB 5 0 2 3 2
18 SVZW 5 0 1 4 1
18 EVV 4 0 0 4 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 SC Genemuiden 5 14 3 +11 15
2 Excelsior '31 5 14 6 +8 10
3 TEC 5 13 12 +1 7
4 Sparta Nijkerk 5 13 14 -1 5
5 ACV 5 12 2 +10 13
6 Dongen 4 12 9 +3 9
7 Sportlust '46 5 12 9 +3 9
8 Hoogeveen 5 12 11 +1 7
9 Hollandia 5 12 18 -6 1
10 FC Lisse 5 11 4 +7 15
11 Rijnvogels 4 11 5 +6 8
12 Harkemase Boys 5 11 6 +5 13
13 ADO '20 4 10 9 +1 7
14 Noordwijk 5 9 0 +9 13
15 Purmersteijn 5 9 6 +3 8
16 VV Scherpenzeel 4 9 7 +2 9
17 Gemert 5 9 9 0 6
18 Groene Ster 5 9 12 -3 5
19 Poortugaal 5 8 5 +3 9
20 GOES 4 8 10 -2 5
21 Dovo 5 8 11 -3 5
22 TOGB 5 8 12 -4 2
23 SVZW 5 8 18 -10 1
24 UNA 4 7 4 +3 6
25 Excelsior Maassluis 5 7 5 +2 8
26 Roosendaal 5 7 6 +1 6
27 Blauw Geel '38 5 7 8 -1 5
28 DVS '33 Ermelo 5 7 11 -4 2
29 Eemdijk 5 7 15 -8 3
30 Staphorst 5 6 9 -3 3
31 Hercules 5 6 16 -10 3
32 Achilles Veen 5 6 16 -10 3
33 UDI '19 4 5 3 +2 7
34 VVSB 5 5 9 -4 4
35 EVV 4 5 11 -6 0
36 Zwaluwen 5 3 9 -6 4
Derde Divisie Paesi Bassi. Derde Divisie Pronostici