Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 16 / Calahorra vs Calasancio

Calahorra vs Calasancio Statistics & Analysis

Calahorra Calahorra
Sep 27, 2026 - 15:00
5 1.49
0 1.11
xG Accuracy: 28%
Calasancio Calasancio
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Calahorra Calahorra ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 5-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10101711

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Calahorra win · Calahorra 5–0 Calasancio
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 16
  • Fixture: Calahorra vs Calasancio
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Calahorra 1.49 — Calasancio 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 16 Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 16 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Haro Deportivo 5 4 1 0 13
2 Berceo 5 4 0 1 12
3 La Calzada 5 4 0 1 12
4 Alfaro 5 3 1 1 10
5 Pradejón 6 3 1 2 10
6 Calahorra 5 3 0 2 9
7 Agoncillo 5 2 2 1 8
8 Anguiano 6 2 2 2 8
9 Oyonesa 6 2 2 2 8
10 Varea 5 1 4 0 7
11 San Marcial 5 1 3 1 6
12 Yagüe 6 2 0 4 6
13 Cenicero 5 1 2 2 5
14 Comillas 6 1 2 3 5
15 Calasancio 5 1 2 2 5
16 River Ebro 6 1 1 4 4
17 Casalarreina 5 1 0 4 3
18 Vianés 5 0 1 4 1
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Berceo 5 14 5 +9 12
2 Calahorra 5 14 7 +7 9
3 Haro Deportivo 5 12 6 +6 13
4 Agoncillo 5 12 8 +4 8
5 La Calzada 5 9 4 +5 12
6 Alfaro 5 9 7 +2 10
7 Pradejón 6 9 7 +2 10
8 Anguiano 6 8 6 +2 8
9 Oyonesa 6 7 8 -1 8
10 Calasancio 5 7 12 -5 5
11 Cenicero 5 6 7 -1 5
12 River Ebro 6 6 15 -9 4
13 Vianés 5 5 10 -5 1
14 Yagüe 6 5 11 -6 6
15 Varea 5 4 3 +1 7
16 San Marcial 5 4 4 0 6
17 Comillas 6 4 7 -3 5
18 Casalarreina 5 4 12 -8 3
Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 16 Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 16 Pronostici