Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 15 / Gazte Berriak vs Doneztebe FT

Gazte Berriak vs Doneztebe FT Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Gazte Berriak
Oct 04, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
Doneztebe FT
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
  • 1X2 Gazte Berriak Gazte Berriak ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11252722

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gazte Berriak win · Gazte Berriak 1–0 Doneztebe FT
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 15
  • Fixture: Gazte Berriak vs Doneztebe FT
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Gazte Berriak 1.32 — Doneztebe FT 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 15 Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 15 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Izarra 5 5 0 0 15
2 Beti Kozkor 5 3 1 1 10
3 Aoiz 5 2 3 0 9
4 Avance Ezcabarte 5 2 2 1 8
5 Mutilvera 4 2 2 0 8
6 Subiza 5 2 1 2 7
7 San Juan 5 2 1 2 7
8 Gazte Berriak 4 2 1 1 7
9 Doneztebe FT 4 1 2 1 5
10 Beti Onak 5 0 5 0 5
11 Valle Egüés 5 1 2 2 5
12 Txantrea 5 1 2 2 5
13 Huarte 5 0 4 1 4
14 Pamplona 5 0 4 1 4
15 Cortes 5 1 1 3 4
16 Bidezarra 5 0 3 2 3
17 Cantolagua 5 1 0 4 3
18 Cirbonero 4 0 2 2 2
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Izarra 5 18 2 +16 15
2 Subiza 5 11 8 +3 7
3 Avance Ezcabarte 5 10 4 +6 8
4 Doneztebe FT 4 10 6 +4 5
5 San Juan 5 9 7 +2 7
6 Valle Egüés 5 8 9 -1 5
7 Aoiz 5 5 2 +3 9
8 Beti Kozkor 5 5 4 +1 10
9 Gazte Berriak 4 5 4 +1 7
10 Beti Onak 5 5 5 0 5
11 Huarte 5 4 5 -1 4
12 Txantrea 5 4 9 -5 5
13 Mutilvera 4 3 1 +2 8
14 Bidezarra 5 3 9 -6 3
15 Cantolagua 5 3 15 -12 3
16 Pamplona 5 2 3 -1 4
17 Cortes 5 2 8 -6 4
18 Cirbonero 4 1 7 -6 2
Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 15 Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 15 Pronostici