Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14 / Guadiana vs Cabeza Buey

Guadiana vs Cabeza Buey Statistics & Analysis

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Guadiana
Sep 27, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 85%
Cabeza Buey Cabeza Buey
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Cabeza Buey Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10106864

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Guadiana 1–1 Cabeza Buey
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14
  • Fixture: Guadiana vs Cabeza Buey
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Guadiana 1.26 — Cabeza Buey 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14 Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14 — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Azuaga 6 5 0 1 15
2 Moralo 6 4 2 0 14
3 Llerenense 5 4 1 0 13
4 Castuera 5 4 0 1 12
5 Villanovense 6 3 1 2 10
6 Puebla Calzada 6 2 2 2 8
7 CD Zafra 5 2 2 1 8
8 Gévora 6 2 2 2 8
9 Jerez 5 2 1 2 7
10 Montijo 6 2 1 3 7
11 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6
12 Cabeza Buey 6 1 3 2 6
13 Villafranca 5 2 0 3 6
14 Jaraíz 6 1 2 3 5
15 Quintana 5 1 2 2 5
16 Atlético Pueblonuevo 6 0 3 3 3
17 Plasencia 5 0 2 3 2
18 Guadiana 6 0 1 5 1
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Azuaga 6 14 4 +10 15
2 Castuera 5 13 3 +10 12
3 Moralo 6 12 6 +6 14
4 Puebla Calzada 6 9 7 +2 8
5 Gévora 6 9 11 -2 8
6 Jerez 5 8 7 +1 7
7 Villanovense 6 7 4 +3 10
8 Villafranca 5 7 8 -1 6
9 Montijo 6 7 9 -2 7
10 CD Zafra 5 6 4 +2 8
11 Santa Amalia 5 6 5 +1 6
12 Cabeza Buey 6 6 6 0 6
13 Jaraíz 6 6 9 -3 5
14 Llerenense 5 5 1 +4 13
15 Atlético Pueblonuevo 6 5 15 -10 3
16 Guadiana 6 3 15 -12 1
17 Quintana 5 2 5 -3 5
18 Plasencia 5 2 8 -6 2
Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14 Spagna. Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14 Pronostici