CD Zafra vs Atlético Pueblonuevo Statistics & Analysis

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CD Zafra

Sep 13, 2026 - 10:15

4 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

Atlético Pueblonuevo

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 CD Zafra CD Zafra ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7452892

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result CD Zafra win · CD Zafra 4–1 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14
Fixture: CD Zafra vs Atlético Pueblonuevo
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): CD Zafra 1.31 — Atlético Pueblonuevo 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Castuera	1	1	0	0	3
2	Azuaga	1	1	0	0	3
3	Cabeza Buey	1	1	0	0	3
4	Moralo	1	1	0	0	3
5	CD Zafra	1	1	0	0	3
6	Llerenense	1	1	0	0	3
7	Villafranca	2	1	0	1	3
8	Atlético Pueblonuevo	1	0	1	0	1
9	Jaraíz	1	0	1	0	1
10	Jerez	1	0	1	0	1
11	Puebla Calzada	1	0	1	0	1
12	Plasencia	1	0	1	0	1
13	Santa Amalia	1	0	1	0	1
14	Villanovense	1	0	0	1	0
15	Quintana	1	0	0	1	0
16	Montijo	1	0	0	1	0
17	Guadiana	2	0	0	2	0
18	Gévora	1	0	0	1	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Castuera	1	5	0	+5	3
2	Azuaga	1	4	1	+3	3
3	Villafranca	2	4	4	0	3
4	Cabeza Buey	1	3	1	+2	3
5	Moralo	1	2	1	+1	3
6	Atlético Pueblonuevo	1	2	2	0	1
7	Jaraíz	1	2	2	0	1
8	Jerez	1	2	2	0	1
9	Puebla Calzada	1	2	2	0	1
10	CD Zafra	1	1	0	+1	3
11	Llerenense	1	1	0	+1	3
12	Villanovense	1	1	2	-1	0
13	Montijo	1	1	3	-2	0
14	Plasencia	1	0	0	0	1
15	Santa Amalia	1	0	0	0	1
16	Quintana	1	0	1	-1	0
17	Guadiana	2	0	4	-4	0
18	Gévora	1	0	5	-5	0