Olímpico Totana vs UCAM Murcia II Statistics & Analysis

Olímpico Totana

Oct 04, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.29

0 1.31

xG Accuracy: 64%

UCAM Murcia II

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 UCAM Murcia II Olímpico Totana ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11684359

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Olímpico Totana win · Olímpico Totana 1–0 UCAM Murcia II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 13
Fixture: Olímpico Totana vs UCAM Murcia II
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Olímpico Totana 1.29 — UCAM Murcia II 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 13 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Santomera	4	3	1	0	10
2	Atlético Pulpileño	4	2	2	0	8
3	Alcantarilla	4	2	2	0	8
4	San Javier	4	2	2	0	8
5	Unión Molinense	4	2	1	1	7
6	UCAM Murcia II	4	1	2	1	5
7	Bullas Deportivo	4	1	2	1	5
8	Santa Cruz	4	1	2	1	5
9	Olímpico Totana	4	1	2	1	5
10	Los Garres	4	1	2	1	5
11	Bala Azul	4	1	2	1	5
12	SFC Minerva	4	1	2	1	5
13	Cartagena LU II	4	1	2	1	5
14	Águilas II	4	0	4	0	4
15	Cotillas CD	4	1	1	2	4
16	Balsicas Atlético	4	1	0	3	3
17	Mazarrón FC	4	0	1	3	1
18	Algar	4	0	0	4	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Unión Molinense	4	9	7	+2	7
2	Santomera	4	8	4	+4	10
3	UCAM Murcia II	4	8	5	+3	5
4	San Javier	4	7	5	+2	8
5	Santa Cruz	4	7	7	0	5
6	Bullas Deportivo	4	5	3	+2	5
7	Olímpico Totana	4	5	5	0	5
8	Cartagena LU II	4	5	6	-1	5
9	Cotillas CD	4	5	7	-2	4
10	Mazarrón FC	4	5	8	-3	1
11	Atlético Pulpileño	4	4	1	+3	8
12	Alcantarilla	4	4	1	+3	8
13	Los Garres	4	4	4	0	5
14	Águilas II	4	4	4	0	4
15	Bala Azul	4	3	3	0	5
16	SFC Minerva	4	2	2	0	5
17	Balsicas Atlético	4	2	7	-5	3
18	Algar	4	1	9	-8	0