Laguna de Duero vs UD San Fernando Statistics & Analysis

Laguna de Duero

Sep 12, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.16

3 1.44

xG Accuracy: 47%

UD San Fernando

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7464232

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result UD San Fernando win · Laguna de Duero 0–3 UD San Fernando

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 12
Fixture: Laguna de Duero vs UD San Fernando
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Laguna de Duero 1.16 — UD San Fernando 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 12 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Las Palmas III	3	2	1	0	7
2	UD San Fernando	3	2	0	1	6
3	San Bartolomé	2	2	0	0	6
4	Real Unión de Tenerife	3	2	0	1	6
5	San Miguel	2	1	1	0	4
6	Marino	3	1	1	1	4
7	Estrella	3	1	1	1	4
8	Tenerife C	3	1	1	1	4
9	Los Llanos	3	1	1	1	4
10	Anaza	3	1	1	1	4
11	Villa Santa Brígida	3	1	1	1	4
12	Panadería Pulido	3	1	1	1	4
13	Mensajero	2	1	0	1	3
14	Unión Sur Yaiza	3	1	0	2	3
15	Lanzarote	2	0	2	0	2
16	Laguna de Duero	3	0	1	2	1
17	Villaverde Norte	3	0	1	2	1
18	Playas Sotavento	3	0	1	2	1

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	UD San Fernando	3	8	2	+6	6
2	Las Palmas III	3	7	3	+4	7
3	Marino	3	6	5	+1	4
4	Estrella	3	6	6	0	4
5	Tenerife C	3	6	6	0	4
6	San Bartolomé	2	5	2	+3	6
7	Panadería Pulido	3	5	6	-1	4
8	San Miguel	2	4	2	+2	4
9	Real Unión de Tenerife	3	4	3	+1	6
10	Los Llanos	3	4	4	0	4
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	3	4	5	-1	3
12	Anaza	3	3	3	0	4
13	Villa Santa Brígida	3	3	3	0	4
14	Laguna de Duero	3	3	7	-4	1
15	Lanzarote	2	2	2	0	2
16	Villaverde Norte	3	2	6	-4	1
17	Playas Sotavento	3	2	9	-7	1
18	Mensajero	2	1	1	0	3