Andratx vs Binissalem Statistics & Analysis

Andratx

Oct 10, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.33

3 1.27

xG Accuracy: 52%

Binissalem

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Andratx Binissalem ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13240834

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Binissalem win · Andratx 2–3 Binissalem

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 11
Fixture: Andratx vs Binissalem
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Andratx 1.33 — Binissalem 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 11 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	5	1	0	16
2	Manacor	5	5	0	0	15
3	Constància	6	4	1	1	13
4	Platges Calvià	6	4	0	2	12
5	PE Sant Jordi	6	3	2	1	11
6	Cardassar	5	3	1	1	10
7	Llosetense	5	3	1	1	10
8	Santanyí	5	2	3	0	9
9	Alcúdia	6	3	0	3	9
10	Porreres	6	3	0	3	9
11	Formentera	5	2	2	1	8
12	Binissalem	6	2	0	4	6
13	Mercadal	6	1	2	3	5
14	Andratx	6	1	2	3	5
15	Migjorn	5	1	0	4	3
16	Arenal	6	1	0	5	3
17	Inter Ibiza	6	0	1	5	1
18	Sineu	6	0	0	6	0

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Manacor	5	15	5	+10	15
2	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	11	2	+9	16
3	Platges Calvià	6	11	5	+6	12
4	Alcúdia	6	11	11	0	9
5	Constància	6	10	3	+7	13
6	Cardassar	5	10	4	+6	10
7	PE Sant Jordi	6	10	7	+3	11
8	Llosetense	5	8	3	+5	10
9	Binissalem	6	8	11	-3	6
10	Formentera	5	7	4	+3	8
11	Porreres	6	7	7	0	9
12	Mercadal	6	6	8	-2	5
13	Andratx	6	6	9	-3	5
14	Santanyí	5	5	3	+2	9
15	Arenal	6	5	14	-9	3
16	Migjorn	5	4	12	-8	3
17	Sineu	6	3	16	-13	0
18	Inter Ibiza	6	2	15	-13	1